Out with Isiah. Finally, Jim Dolan took his head out of his ass to see the crumbling cornerstone of the NBA at his feet in the Garden. Make no mistake about it, Isiah Thomas is public enemy #1 in New York, but he really should be #2 on the list of people to blame for the shit that the Knicks have become. He's a moron, but every moron needs an enabler to spread mass destruction throughout the world. George Bush's enabler is Dick Cheney, for example. Isiah's was Jim Dolan. I guarantee that pressure from the NBA's front office mounted to the point that Dolan had to cave to the immense will of David Stern and can Zeke. Stern didn't even hide the fact that he was ashamed of the Knicks.That said, putting Zeke in NBA Siberia was the right thing to do. I understand that Dolan has shelled out so much wasted money at this point that it had to stop somewhere, but that couldn't deter him from ejecting Isiah from the scene in New York. He got to keep some value in Zeke by sending him off to Europe on a scouting mission, while rebuilding the organization in New York from the ground up. People focus on the team and it's hideous construction, but it's easy to forget that Zeke put together a bunch of cronies at the Garden, collectively incompetent and unapologetic. Even the Marbury clan had free run of the place and it all came to a head when the whole organization was hauled into court on sexual/power harassment charges....and lost. To me the highlight (lowlight) of that whole fiasco was Stephon Marbury's testimony about sleeping with interns in limosines. He's so stupid that it never occurred to him that his Coney Island bubble was the only place where that looked cool in court.
Enter Donnie Walsh. I would have loved to have seen a young GM brought in a la the Sonics Pestri. (Mr. West wrote about this before last season.) The NBA is behind the game when it comes to injecting fresh blood into the process. It's coming along, but the same old faces keep popping up everywhere, from coaches to GMs to players. Try something different for God's sake. The Major Leagues have famously embraced the new and different and many young GMs have made names for themselves in short order by going "new." Brian Cashman of the Yankees is a young-ish guy and started as an intern. Theo Epstein has won two World Series and made the Red Sox into the model franchise in the sport. C'mon NBA.Back to Walsh...it makes sense to have a ship set adrift captained by an experienced leader with knowledge of the ins and outs of the league. The risky move with the greatest upside would have been the young guy, but the smart move here is the stabilizing presence of a respected insider. Walsh is no spring chicken, so you have to figure that he's going to get this thing straightened out and then pass the reins. His biggest move to date has been to commit to getting under the cap and making a run at the LeBron class of 2010 free agents. Next on the list is the hiring of Mike D'Antoni.
Hiring Mike D'Antoni. The EuroHoops era of basketball has finally hit New York. The Suns have been the model franchise in the NBA for adopting the European model of basketball. The Raptors went to the playoffs and turned their mediocre franchise around by doing the same. A lot of teams are going foreign and reaping the benefits. The Spurs wisely combined tough defense with an Argentine flair to build a dynasty. They play smart and hard and understand what a team is. As far as I'm concerned, getting as far away from the AAU player as possible is the key to building a winning franchise in the NBA. AAU athletes are stupid. They play street ball and don't understand the way to do it right.Before you read this and get your back up about that last series of comments, understand that there's not a racial tinge in there. There's not an anti-streetball stamp on the statement that discounts the street from the development of the modern sport. I'll explain by saying that the AAU/Streetball model of basketball is one of flair and style before strategy. It's one of showcasing and entertainment before winning. A lot of those teams win because they have great athletes who are playing against other great athletes who don't know how to play. If two teams play equally bad basketball, despite their talents, someone's got to win out. The problem is, when those players go up against a team that is talented and knows how to play, they lose. Hence the Olympics and World Championships.
When Magic, Michael, Bird, Malone, Stockton, and the rest teamed up to play internationally they destroyed everyone. They were talented, flashy, and entertaining, but they knew how to play. Somewhere in the Derrick Coleman era things went terribly wrong and have spiralled downhill ever since. Is it the SportsCenter mentatlity? Is it the increasing echo-chamber of agents, entourages, and assorted hangers-on that have turned the AAU kid into a shitty basketball player? I don't know what the answer is, but one need only look so far as Stephon Marbury to understand it. Starbury is gifted. He's a gifted athlete. He's a gifted point guard. He was a smart player at Georgia Tech. He knew the game, but he didn't feel he had to play by anyone's rules but Starbury's. He was on the cover of Slam every week and had it all. Somewhere along the way the NBA figured out that he could drop 40 on you, but he didn't know how to make a team better. They let him drop 40 and beat him every night. That's why the Suns and the Nets gave up on him. That's why the Knicks are giving up on him now.
Getting back to D'Antoni, I expect to see him clean house. We already see the effect on the roster, and there's plenty more to come. This guy played in Europe and coached there. He saw the way that the European teams beat the NBA and have come to rule the sport in the new millennium. He may not win right away in New York, but I guarantee two things. One, the team will be better to watch night in and night out. Two, the club will no longer underachieve. Attitude and style of play are going to change in New York or guys are going to be shown the door. The new regime isn't going to let this group of mediocre players rule the roost. If you have LeBron and he wants to dictate to the club, it's hard to argue, but if it's Marbury or Zach Randolph, fuck 'em. Get out.
The roster is changing. I won't get into the long term plans for the Knicks and the cap today, except to say that there's a decent plan to get better and that it doesn't mean trading crap for more crap. The changes that are coming right now are going to have an impact and I want to highlight a few of them:
Chris Duhon is in the house. Make no mistake, I don't think this guy is a great player. His per-36 minute stats are extraordinarily mediocre with Chicago. The thing is, he's smart and he comes from a good system. More than stats, basketball is a sport of chemistry. I'm a stat guy, so I need to clarify that. Stats are simply a record of what a guy does on the floor. In that respect, all a player is in the end is an aggregate of his statistics. The thing is, he's an aggregate of some statistics that don't as yet exist in basketball as they do in baseball. Baseball has pioneered the analysis of value and performace via statistical modelling and it's easy to compare one player's impact against another's, even across eras. Basketball has no such system as yet. Duhon isn't great, but he's better than his range of murky NBA statistics tell us. His assist to turnover rate is phenomenal and he plays good defense. He also knows the game and can run an offense. Plug him into a D'Antoni system and he'll not only learn it quickly, he'll feel it and help his teammates feel it as well. That's the role of the point guard.
This is a plus, plus for the Knicks because it allows us to dump Stephon Marbury in a hurry. We can eat one year of his ridiculous salary, since he's coming off the books next year anyway and is poison to the locker room. I think Knick fans will be pleased with Duhon as the temporary solution to the point guard spot in this lineup.
Gallinari has arrived. Look at the picture of this kid. Look at that body. He's fuckin' 19 years old and growing. Every Euro gets compared to either Dirk Nowitzki or Darko Milicic these days, adding in recent #1 pick Andrea Bargnani to the mix. Gallinari is more Nowitzki than Milicic or Bargnani, although it's hard to say how good he'll be in 6 or 7 years. Nowitzki was a monster at 19 and put up slightly better numbers in Germany than Gallinari did in Italy, although I think Italy is a better league. I don't expect Gallinari to be the NBA MVP, nor does he have to be, so Nowitzki can be a nice ceiling to shoot for, knowing that slightly less can be equally acceptable.Andrea Bargnani reminds me of Brad Lohaus. The numbers are astonishly similar. I looked at a photo of Bargnani and asked myself who he reminded me of physically and Lohaus came to mind. Then, it occurred to me that they play the same kind of game. Outside, weak defense, occasionally trying to beat a slower big off the dribble. Bingo the stats match up. Gallinari looks a lot like Detlef Schrempf to me, and to a lot of others as well. Both are lean, muscular, and mobile for players their size. I also thought of Dan Majerle when I saw that buff picture of Gallinari in his Knicks garb, but I think he's more of a power player than Thunder Dan. A better rebounder, if a worse defender. Either way, that's also a nice comparison for a 6th pick. Schrempf managed to put up a 15 year NBA career with averages of 14 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. The prime of his career was spent with Indiana and Seattle, on winning teams, and he regularly averaged mid-to-high teens in points, between 8 and 10 rebounds, and about 4 assists per game. He averaged an astonishing 19 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 6 assists for Indiana in 1992-93 as a 30 year old.
If Gallinari does anything like Schrempf for the Knicks, I'll be overjoyed.
UPDATE 7/16: When I came back to look at this post again, I saw the picture of Gallinari and thought immediately of Tom Gugliotta. More than Schrempf, who is a fair comparison, I think Tom Gugliotta might be a decent projection for this kid. Maybe slightly conservative with his upside being closer to Nowitzki than Gugs. For the record, Gugliotta averaged 13 points, 7 boards, and 3 assists a game over 13 NBA seasons. He was injured as much as he played during long stretches and therefore never got any real traction as a player. His best year was 96-97 when he played all but one game for Minnesota, averaging 20.6 points, 8.7 boards, 4.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. After that year, Gugliotta averaged about half a season on the DL over the remaining 8 seasons of his career. Too bad. If Gallinari can match his production and stay on the floor, we've got something.
Wilson Chandler is in the mix. D'Antoni has a man crush on Wilson Chandler. He said as much recently when he said that Chandler's mix of skills is intriguing. To illustrate how intriguing Chandler's skills are in a new look Knicks offense, the forward dropped 26 points, 8 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, and a three on 11 for 21 shooting in his Vegas Summer League debut against the Cavs. Mind you, the players on the Cavs roster were so anonymous that even their parents had to do a double take to recognize them. Chandler's not going to be the next coming of Shawn Marion for the Knicks, as he's never been so highly thought of in his entire playing career. He was a looked-over recruit as a high schooler, an interesting afterthought as a collegiate draftee, and a nice fill-in for the Knicks last season.From late-March through mid-April last season, Chandler performed very well. He scored in double figures almost every night, rebounded a bit, and hit some threes. One of the positive things about Chandler that D'Antoni has to like is that he doesn't turn the ball over. He protects well and doesn't need to have the rock in his hands a lot to do good things. He runs the break, finishes well, fills the lane with the drive or the three, and is active around the ball. I expect to see nice things from the 21-year old this season.
Crawford/Q-Rich/Nate/Lee represent a group of players who stand to play important short term roles with this club. I listed them in the order of importance for the new Knicks. Crawford is the scorer and should have the ball in his hands a lot. He's going to drop 25 a game this season for sure. Q-Rich is the outside shooting valve that D'Antoni requires in his system to keep defenses honest. He's going to be Duhon's best friend in New York if he can stay healthy and in shape. IF. Nate Robinson is the backup point guard. I think he'd the Leandro Barbosa of the Knicks and could have real value off the bench for significant minutes. It remains to be seen if he can actually play the sport though, and we'll know soon enough if D'Antoni intends to use him or lose him. Lee is in the same boat. He should be the guy in line to get minutes here, but I expect him to be traded. He can't shoot so he has no place in the Euro system. I love the guy, as do Knick fans everywhere, but we have a glut of forwards. Gallinari, Chandler, and Richardson already have slots on this team and Zach Randolph is still around. Lee has value as a good player with a low salary.
Jones/Collins/Jeffries/Balkman/James are a group of guys that have no purpose in life as Knicks. Jones is a decent shooter and a hard nosed veteran. He may be out, but I'd keep him. Mardy Collins is out. Jeffries is stuck in New York, but can't figure in the mix much. Jerome James is on the target list for early departure with the club trying to convince him to retire. Yeah, right. And I'm about to win the lottery. James is content to sit the bench and never play at all. He can collect his big check and laugh all the way to the bank. Jeffries, on the other hand, is paid a lot of money, but wants to play. He sucks though, and D'Antoni should plant his ass on the bench until he demands to be released. He comes from a good system (Indiana) but he can't do anything on the court. He can't shoot. He can't pass. He can't rebound or defend particularly well. He reminds me of Josh Childress, if Childress had one leg. He reminds me of Shane Battier if Battier were legally blind. Renaldo Balkman is a player. He can do all the dirty stuff and has a place in the league. Just not with NY. I think he can be traded for a 2nd rounder. Do it.
Randolph and Curry are our baggage. They're exactly the same player in different length bodies. They're both Oliver Miller. Neither guy is in shape. Curry, especially, looks like he ate Jerome James with a side of fries and a super sized shake. Randolph is actually a good rebounder to his credit. Neither guy can pass, defend, or control the ball. Neither guys looks like he cares a lick about winning. It looks like the Knicks have some kind of deal in the works with the jilted Clippers for Randolph. Great!! I'll pay his airfare.If Walsh pulls this off, I'll buy him a cake. Getting rid of one of these guys has to be a priority this offseason, along with the dumping of Starbury. Absent Randolph and Marbury, the Knicks should be a much better balance of players.
If I were making this roster, I'd go with the following:
Chris Duhon.....Nate Robinson
Jamal Crawford.....Fred Jones
Quentin Richardson.....Wilson Chandler
Danillo Gallinari.....Jared Jeffries
Eddy Curry.....Randolph Morris
The remaining two roster spots should probably go to Renaldo Balkman for his practice hustle, and a guy to replace one of the above stiffs in a deal that would include Lee/Randolph. If we can upgrade by dumping Randolph and packaging Lee, the above team could be bearable for the year. In the end, it's about the direction the team is taking. Q-Rich has no future with the team. Neither do most of the bench guys. The key is dumping and rebuilding piece by piece. One guy out, a decent player in. Slow and steady wins the race.
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