Friday, December 15, 2006

Mother May I?

Sean May's getting burn now. Bickerstaff finally saw the light on this guy. He was hurt all last year in his rookie campaign. He got sporadic minutes for the whole 1st month of the season, but I've been paying attention. I saw last year, and in the preseason this year that the lottery pick from UNC posts fierce numbers when he gets over 25 minutes a game. Without fail, when he gets those minutes he scores, boards, dishes, steals, and blocks. His numbers at UNC back all that up. He averaged 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks over 3 years at Carolina. He can ball. I wrote in our season preview at EvW:

"Finally, Sean May will have a surprising impact this season. Watch."

He's busting out. If he continues to get 25+ minutes the rest of the way, he'll put up 16-18 points on around .500 shooting and .750 from the line, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, and close to a steal and a block. To compare him to someone similar, I looked around for a close breakdown. Let's call May's numbers a 28 minute per game estimate.

May projections (28 mpg .500/.750 16.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.2 rpg, .8 steals, 1.2 bpg)
Mr. X statistic (37 mpg .524/.724 18.6 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.2 steals, 1.9 bpg)

Player X gets 9 minutes a game more. Let's see what they do per 48 minutes.

May per 48 (25.2 ppg, 13.4 rpg, 3.6 apg, .72 spg, 1.72 bpg)
MrX per 48 (23.9 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.59 spg, 2.44 bpg)

So, May is not quite the stat sheet stuffer that Mr. X is on defense, but I suspect his steals would be higher if he played a bit more. Last year he averaged .7 steals in only 17 minutes. The blocks look to be a reasonable downgrade. He's at .9 this year in 24 minutes. Have you guessed who Mr. X is?

Elton Brand.

Watch my man break out. All it is in the NBA is minutes. May will be starting within a month and Brezec will be a thing of the past.

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