Next?

I'm all amped up about J.R. Smith. It's mainly because he's on my fantasy team, and I need him to do well, but I actually drafted him in the final round of my league two years ago, when he was a rookie. I've liked him from the start. I'm looking at what he's been doing lately, and it seems that the 21 year old is on the verge of breaking out. The Nuggets may have fleeced the Bulls, and the Bulls may have fleeced the Hornets. It's one of those things that makes you a little sick when you think of it, but imagine that Smith turns out to be great and then remember that Byron Scott basically booted him because he was young, cocky, and a little stupid. He could have paired with Chris Paul for 15 years as a dynamite backcourt. He'll look pretty good next to Carmelo Anthony as it is. For the hell of it, let's look at what a few other players did in their 3rd season, while playing around 30 minutes at SG. *Ray Allen's numbers are his rookie stats, when he was also 21. He jumped out of the box with major minutes from day one.

J.R. Smith(21) (16.4 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.4 SPG, 3.0 3PG)

Ray Allen(21*) (13.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.4 3PG)
Michael Redd(23) (15.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.2 SPG, 2.2 3PG)
Kobe Bryant(20) (19.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.5 3PG)
Tracy McGrady(21) (15.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.9 BPG!, 0.2 3PG)

By taking this small sample, it appears as though Smith is more in the mold of Ray Allen and Michael Redd, as I suspected. He is more athletic than either of them, and would seem to resemble McGrady more, but his game is not as dynamic. He doesn't attack the rim, or crash the boards. He does get his steals and shoots the lights out of the three. He also looks a bit like Eddie Jones or Morris Peterson when they broke into the league. Most of the players who play this particular style have entered a bit later, as they probably lacked the dynamic quality to be thought of as highly as Kobe or T-Mac. Michael Redd is that kind of player as well. He was a standout at Ohio State, but not nearly as highly regarded as a guy like Ray Allen, who was an NCAA Player of the Year. Now Redd is in Allen's class, and fills it up on a nightly basis.

I see a Redd/Allen type player emerging in Smith, and the Nuggets have wisely given him the minutes he deserves. If you look at his first two seasons, he produced some big nights when given the time. In his rookie 2004-05 season, at the age of 19, Smith started 56 games and had twelve 20+ point games (one over 30) and eleven games in which he hit 3 or more three pointers. In his sophmore campaign, Smith found himself in Byron Scott's doghouse and only started 25 games. He had two games of 20 points or more, and five games of 3 three pointers or more. After having played more than 30 minutes 26 times in his rookie season, Scott tried his best to ruin a talented young guy that just needed to make his mistakes on the floor. He played 30+ minutes on only 5 occasions last season, and almost not at all for the last 2 months of the year.

This season, in 9 games, J.R. has played 30+ in five of the first 8 games, and has a 21 point outburst to go with his more recent 36. The only time he's failed to score at least 16 points were two occasions that George Karl was trying to send him a message. To his credit, Karl is giving him a long rope and putting up with the flakey moments that leave a coach shaking his head. It seems the Bulls got two second round picks and Howard Eisley for a guy that could be Michael Redd or Ray Allen in two or three years. Time will tell, but it's time to start watching J.R. Smith.

Mr. East